Everton vs Burnley Prematch Analysis – Key Battles, Lukaku to Score
Everton will look down an 18 point gap to host Burnley FC at 3pm this Saturday. Sharing 54 points with Arsenal ups the pressure on what would have otherwise been an expected win for the Toffees, we will take a quick look at tactics, recent form and predictions.
Last time we played Burnley in the league we had Bolasie in form but still were unfortunate to lose 2-1, I would classify Burnley as punishers, similar to Leicester. Quick on the break, happy to concede possession especially when playing away from home, but when finally breaking into the final third they can be lethal. They’re not a team who get too many shots off, so tend to be clinical when they finally get their chances. In Vokes and/or Barnes we receive an aerial threat, both strong players who will cause trouble if they get the ball in our box.
A player who I rate highly but hasn’t been doing well for Burnley recently is Gray, just like the strikers mentioned above he is strong but he is also dangerously fast and can burst into space behind defenders. They are likely to start with a Sean Dyche typical 4-4-2, and if Gray starts then we could have a problem on our hands. Experience and grit will be required to deal with Vokes/Barnes, which we have in mounds with our veterans: Jagielka and Williams who has served his recent ban.
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However when facing Gray we lack speed, with experience we lose pace which could mean another call up for Pennington in a back 3, which would reopen the issue of marking their two big men in the air. I’m unsure if Pennington has the ability to deal with strikers so strong, but if he wants to be a Premier League defender then he will have to rise to the challenge.
In the middle of the pitch we find an integral part of Burnley’s defensive success this year, and a fellow Evertonian: Joey Barton. A player known for injuring the opposition and getting carded, his qualities are often overlooked. During the rise of Burnely, Barton was early identified as a player they would acquire to do precisely what he has done this season; destroy. He will likely face up against Davies and Barkley, Davies has a fast style of play and incorporates a lot of one touch football, whereas Barkley has a tendency to linger on the ball (my largest criticism of him), which is something a player like Barton will look to exploit.
One aspect of Saturday that I feel has been overlooked is the threat Stephen Ward will pose down our right side. In the 4-4-2 we will likely see the Burnley fullbacks look to overload down the wings, and with us fielding an inexperienced Holgate who is arguably not even a right-back, we could have problems. Ward’s purpose is to supply the big centre-forwards with crosses, so rather than ask Holgate to outplay Ward, it could be a good idea to assign him the single defensive responsibility to block the supply; just making sure Ward doesn’t drift past him, no over committing, Hol!
Burnley have a brilliant defense, their identity is good organisation, and with the up and coming Keane at the heart of the back 4, Everton will have to show our quality in order to score. Heaton has emerged as one of the League’s top goalkeepers, earning 9 clean sheets this season placing him as joint 5th best keeper.
With our home form though there is no doubt in my mind that we will score. Even if Everton didn’t have Schneiderlin conducting his symphony or a bullish Lukaku scoring at will, Goodison would lift us. We’re likely to see Mirallas and Barkley behind Lukaku again, who will be sure to cause trouble regardless of how well Burnley are organised.
I believe we will win, we are too technically superior for their organisation to handle. Lukaku will get a goal and dominate Mee and Keane, one of the goalkeepers that Heaton shares 5th place with is Joel! They’re not the only ones with a good defense. Burnley still have not won away from home this year, and Everton’s home form could crush anyone at the moment, I predict 3-1.
Up the Ev.