Everton go into the 227th edition of the Merseyside Derby brimming with confidence after handing Arsenal their first loss since losing to Liverpool on opening day.
Fate pits the only two teams to have beaten the Gunners against each other in the most highly anticipated match of the season.
An old adage says that you’re only as good as your last match.
That’s perfect for Everton, who kept their home unbeaten streak intact in a prideful win on Tuesday. Everton can erase all lingering sour taste left from the last three months of inconsistent form with a win against their most bitter rivals.
And it’s definitely there for the taking.
How to punish Liverpool
Everyone knows how dangerous the Reds are going forward. They’ve scored a league-leading 40 goals, 19 of which coming away from Anfield.
But let’s focus on their achilles heel, their susceptible defense.
Jurgen Klopp employs an expansive system tailor fitted for attacking football. They are, however, as they play with a narrow three in the midfield and up front, left open on both wings and are susceptible to a counter attacks.
Liverpool have conceded 20 goals this season, which, before West Brom allowed two against Manchester United at home on Saturday, was the worst defensive record of all top-seven teams. They’ve allowed 14, or 70 percent, of goals away from Anfield, an even more promising stat for Evertonians.
The good news doesn’t stop there.
Liverpool have managed two clean sheets in their previous three away games, but are known to concede in bundles. The Reds allowed four second-half goals when they imploded away to Bournemouth in a 4-3 loss at the start of the month. Also, Liverpool conceded two at Crystal Palace and three at the Emirates on opening day.
There is some bad news for Toffees supporters, as Joel Matip, after missing the Middlesbrough match through an ankle injury, may be available for selection. The Reds haven’t lost a game and concede less than a goal per game when he plays. Without Matip in the lineup, Liverpool, on average, allows about two and a half goals.
The fortress that is Goodison
There’s no question that Goodison acts as Everton’s 12th man.
Everton have sold out every home match so far this season. But more impressive is the noise and support Toffees supporters offer their beloved team. Last week’s win against Arsenal was a perfect example of how the Goodison faithful can push Everton across the line.
Goodison faithful always play an even bigger role in derby matches and the same will be true come Monday evening under the lights.
The Blues defense is airtight at home, only conceding six goals in eight matches. Everton are unbeaten in eight Premier League matches at Goodison. They’ve won and drawn four, taking 16 from a possible 24 points.
That’s good for 70 percent of Everton’s 23 total points. The Toffees are all but perfect in the second half at home, conceding only two goals. One of those was scored by Christian Benteke in a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace. You’d have to go all the way back to opening day, when Erik Lamela scored for Spurs, to find the other.
Everton have scored 12 goals in their safe haven, five from defenders, three from Romelu Lukaku and two from Ross Barkley. Gareth Barry and a Shay Given own goal round out Everton’s goals at Goodison.
Match prediction
For all Liverpool’s defensive misgivings and frailties, this match is bound to be a tight, defensive battle. It’s crucial for the Toffees to start well, carrying on the momentum they gained from the glorious Arsenal victory.
Not like you’ll require added incentive to lift the Toffees faithful on derby day, but Everton need to score the first goal to settle any nerves while putting the away side, who is known at times to completely unravel in hostile environments, well and truly on the back foot.
Everton have scored a goal in the last five minutes in four of their last five Premier League matches – three of these have changed the outcome of the match. But they won’t always be able to rely on late heroics.
Next: Ronald Koeman's pre-match Merseyside Derby press conference
Toffees fans will absolutely hate the fact that Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 Merseyside Derbies. That fact alone will be enough to spur Everton on to second consecutive 2-1 home victory, and I for one can’t wait.