Can Everton still grab a European place?
There are seven Premier League games left to play this season, is that enough time for Everton to get the points needed to qualify for Europe?
This has been a terribly disappointing and frustrating season. Everton have lurched from one crisis to another on the pitch, replaced their manager just a few months into the season and turned in one of the club’s worst defensive performances in recent memory.
With no chance of picking up any silverware yet again, maybe the Blues can salvage something from the season by qualifying for the Europa League.
Fifth place guarantees a Europa League spot but just like last season things could open up depending on who wins what as the season reaches its climax.
If one of the top four teams still in it or Chelsea (currently in fifth place) wins the FA Cup, then it would open up the Europa League to the sixth placed side, just as it did last season.
Also because Manchester City, the League Cup winners are already assured of European football in the Champions League next season, seventh place might also qualify you for the Europa League.
Anyway that’s the technical stuff out of the way. The question is, can Everton claim one of these places and is it in fact worth it to do so.
At the moment the Blues are three points behind Burnley in seventh and eight points behind Arsenal in sixth.
So it’s certainly possible Everton could overhaul Burnley and get that seventh place, although Arsenal are almost certainly too far ahead.
The Blues have a couple of tough games coming up with leaders Manchester City next at Goodison Park and then of course the Merseyside derby, again at home.
But then the remaining five games are all winnable given that they are against teams in the bottom half of the table.
So let’s say to be super-optimistic Everton were to win five of those seven matches, draw one and lose one (l hope it’s not the derby again though!). That’s sixteen points gained from the remaining games.
That would make a total of 56 points for the season, probably more than enough to claim seventh place. However Burnley have a game in hand and some equally winnable upcoming fixtures so it would be far from certain.
If Everton were to get a Europa League place for next season, what are the implications of that?
For some reason that nobody can quite explain, playing on a Thursday night in a Europa League fixture and then a Sunday in the Premier League, seems to be harder for teams than for those playing in the Champions League earlier in the week.
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Certainly Everton have not enjoyed great league form whenever they have played in the competition. The effect on Premier League performances can be considerable and makes it a difficult balancing act.
The potential reward of winning the competition is now of course considerable; a place in the coveted Champions League with all the additional riches and player pulling power that gives you
But to achieve that you need a deep squad and the confidence to play a strong team consistently in the Europa League in order to give yourself a realistic chance of winning it.
At the moment I don’t think Everton have a squad capable of doing this whilst also staying competitive in the league.
And if you get to the last few rounds of that bloated competition, you also probably need to prioritise it over league matches as Manchester United did last season.
Next: Should Everton focus on midfield this summer?
At any rate Everton are going to find it extremely difficult to get a top four place in the foreseeable future and so the only realistic route to the Champions League is to win this tournament.