The Turkish striker has failed to score for Everton in six Premier League games, despite scoring five in 13 last season. But are the numbers unfair on the former Besiktas man?
The comparisons started in mid-March. At this point, Cenk Tosun, who had recently signed for Everton for £27,000,000 in January, had notched three goals in six Premier League appearances.
Impressed by the Turkish striker’s run of form, Liverpool Echo writer Phil Kirkbride asked:
"“Could Cenk Tosun follow the Nikica Jelavic path into Evertonian affections?”"
Of course, there was always a risk that Tosun could emulate Jelavic in another way too. Jelavic scored nine goals in his first half-season with Everton. He then managed just ten in the two seasons that followed.
Fast forward to September, and Tosun has failed to score in six Premier League games, leading Everton fans to call for a new striker (again). Regardless of need however, what exactly has happened to Cenk Tosun in 2018-19? And what can we expect from him going forward this year?
Tosun’s stuttering season
In a previous article, I talked about Cenk Tosun’s hot start on Merseyside in 2017-18, and how the underlying statistics didn’t hold-up against his strong scoring rate.
To summarise, Tosun looked poor on expected goals measures last year, and ran an unsustainably high shot-conversion rate. This meant he scored more than he should, taking into account the positions and opportunities he managed to carve out for himself in front of goal.
This season however, Tosun has had the opposite luck; and probably deserves to be up and running according to his xGoals metrics (source: Understat). In many ways however, this dry spell is to be expected. It was almost certain that Tosun’s luck would eventually run out.
Football isn’t all about fortune though, and the Turkish striker’s profile on Understat demonstrates a core issue with his play.
Whilst Tosun has managed 12 shots already in 2018-19, the vast majority have been in low-impact, low-likelihood areas, often outside the box or out towards the flank. Tosun has looked ineffectual at set-pieces too, managing a single shot from a corner or free-kick so far this season.
Quite frankly, the statistics do not suggest that Tosun will come good this year, if current trends are to continue. His impact is negligible, and speculative shooting will not translate into a steady stream of goals. Change is needed to provide the Blues a dynamic attacking outlet up top.
Assessing Everton’s needs up front
It seems unlikely that Everton will find an adequate solution up-front in January. Just nine months ago, the Blues splashed £27,000,000 on Tosun. This summer meanwhile, Marco Silva and Marcel Brands spent extensively in July and August.
Whilst there might still be transfer cash available in the new year, I highly doubt that the wage budget will allow for another blue-chip signing.
In light of this, it is key that Everton experiment with their forward options. If the Blues place onus on aerial ability, it is unlikely that Tosun will be the solution. Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin should be preferred.
If speed is needed, Walcott could be trialled as a striking option. Oumar Niasse too should come in from the cold.
But what about Tosun?
For me, it is clear that the 27-year-old currently lacks the physical ability to carve out space in the box, or dribble with the ball dynamically.
Correspondently, Tosun needs to improve his strength and speed to be successful. As demonstrated by his sublime finishing and positioning last year, the anticipation and technical skill is there.
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It is clear that Cenk Tosun is misfiring. Granted, it is not all bad news. The former Besiktas man has managed a handful of assists, and probably deserved a penalty against Huddersfield before the International break.
Despite these bright spots, Marco Silva and Everton would be wise to reconsider Tosun’s role. As a striker, he needs to make a nuisance of himself in vital areas. Crucially, he needs to find more opportunities close in to goal.
If Cenk cannot achieve this; it seems unlikely that he will continue to flourish this year at Everton.