As Everton supporters continue to digest last night’s 2-0 loss at Stamford Bridge, that result has underlined how important this season’s home defeats could be in the race for European places.
Everton were in truth long odds to win last night’s match. I hoped they could find a way but it was always tough given Chelsea’s recent form and the Toffees long barren run at Stamford Bridge.
Claiming victories against these sorts of teams on their own turf is usually much harder then winning your home games.
But this season the absence of fans in stadiums has made a significant difference and it has thrown up some very strange results.
And away from home the Blues themselves have been excellent this season in complete contrast to recent campaigns.
But their home form has declined in parallel and while Everton have won nine matches on the road they’ve lost five league games at Goodison Park and other than Manchester United, all to teams that the Toffees should really still be beating.
Leeds United, West Ham, Newcastle United and Fulham have all won at Goodison Park without Everton scoring a single goal in any of those matches. Losing all these matches has made it more important to get results at places like Stamford Bridge.
Let’s imagine the Blues had actually won two, drawn one and lost one of those four games. They would have an extra seven points and would be on 53 points and be sitting level with Leicester City in third. Their goal difference would have been improved too and that could prove crucial at the end of the campaign in settling who finishes where.
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None of this means that Everton would certainly have qualified for the Champions League at the end of the season had they secured more wins at home, but it would have made it much more likely and defeats like last night wouldn’t have been so significant.
As the season enters it’s final third, the Blues have home Premier League matches against Crystal Palace, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Sheffield United and Wolves. In a normal campaign they’d all be winnable, at least on paper.
I think the Toffees have to win at least three if not four of these to have a good chance of qualifying for Europe let alone a chance of a Champions League place.
Of the away matches, (which include tough trips to the Etihad to play Manchester City and then a game against Arsenal where it’s almost as long since the Blues won there as at Chelsea), the one that stands out is of course West Ham at the London Stadium in May.
Davd Moyes has done a brilliant job turning the Hammers into a European contender rather than the regular relegation battlers they’ve usually been. In fact it’s a lot like the the job he did at Everton in his early years at Goodison.
The match in east London might well prove to be a shootout to decide who gets Europe or even a top four place, assuming both clubs are still in contention. Let’s just hope those earlier home defeats haven’t come back to haunt Everton.