Failure at Forest could be a terminal moment in Everton survival battle

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - AUGUST 20: Tom Davies of Everton in action during the Premier League match between Everton FC and Nottingham Forest at Goodison Park on August 20, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - AUGUST 20: Tom Davies of Everton in action during the Premier League match between Everton FC and Nottingham Forest at Goodison Park on August 20, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)

Just a few days after a four goal mauling at Arsenal Everton now travel halfway back to Merseyside to face Nottingham Forest in a very significant away fixture tomorrow.

The Toffees’ away form has been truly abysmal for as long as I can remember and the last time, indeed the only time this season, they have picked up maximum points on the road, was at Southampton in October.

So it seems very long odds that Everton will reverse that miserable record at the City Ground on Sunday afternoon.

This is particularly true when you factor in that the nearly permanently crocked Dominic Calvert-Lewin is once again almost certainly unable to take the field against Forest.

Looking at upcoming fixtures, the Blues’ have several home games that are at least on paper winnable, with matches at Goodison Park against Brentford, Fulham, Newcastle United (maybe) and Bournemouth on the last day of the season.

But, as we all know, even winning all of those will not be enough to keep Everton up. That means securing some points on their travels will be essential to survival. This looks a very tall order.

As far as away games go, the Toffees’ have three from which they might have some slim hope of securing points. Those are tomorrow afternoon, and then matches at Leicester and Wolves.

How then can Sean Dyche deploy his desperately limited resources to try and secure a point at the very minimum, at the City Ground?

I have written several times that I believe he has to try and think a little differently about how to use the players he has.

Given the situation and who he is, I think Dyche will be loathe to commit much to attack early on awayway.

Without Calvert-Lewin, his choices up front are especially depressingly. Neal Maupay has been his starting striker for the past three Premier League games.

That hasn’t worked and Maupay surely cannot start again tomorrow, particularly if he is operating on his own.

I would give Ellis Simms a chance with perhaps Demarai Gray or even Alex Iwobi behind him. That is unless Dyche wants to try something really different like pushing a midfielder up front, as I have also suggested he consider.

Having direct support and pace up front will be critical if Everton are playing a counter-attacking gameplan, which seems very likely.

Dyche also hinted that another of his injured players, midfielder James Garner, might be available for selection on Sunday.

The other player, Nathan Patterson, who I was hoping might be ready to return to the team soon, doesn’t look as though he is ready yet.

If he was, I would have been tempted to start him in a wide midfield role in place of Alex Iwobi while Garner could be a possible replacement for Idrissa Gueye, who’s game has been plagued by serious errors for a while now, although it’s likely too soon for that.

He might consider Tom Davies in that central midfield holding role too, but probably not from the start as he’s only been a substitute so far.

In defence, Dyche needs to also think about different approaches. Vitalii Mykolenko has been very poor at left-back for months now and with Ben Godfrey fit again, perhaps he could bring Godfrey into the team in Mykolenko’s place.

And, at centre-back, I think Yerry Mina should be considered instead of sticking to another error-prone player in Michael Keane who played at Arsenal.

Can the Toffees’ get something from tomorrow’s match? I have to say I don’t have much hope at all.

On the plus side, the hosts don’t have much goalscoring power themselves and have only netted once more than the Blues’ this season. They also might struggle from set-pieces with injury problems affecting them.

So, a high-scoring encounter doesn’t seem very probable. A draw wouldn’t be a disaster for the Toffees’, but really all three points are needed from one of the few away fixtures that look as though they can possibly be won.